Minutes after news emerged that Donald Trump would nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), Wall Street investors rendered their initial verdict.
Starting Thursday afternoon when Donald Trump Jr. first announced his father’s selection of RFK Jr. for HHS, shares of several COVID-19 vaccine developers tumbled. They didn’t plunge, but they sank fast enough to reflect investor jitters about vaccine policy given RFK’s severe criticism of the COVID-19 jabs—whose development Trump’s first administration shepherded through its “Operation Warp Speed” initiative.
Taking the heaviest stock losses among COVID-19 vaccine developers has been Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), which fell 7% from $42.14 to $39.77 Thursday, then dropped another 7% Friday, to $36.85.
The decline erased more than $2 billion or 13% off Moderna’s market capitalization—the product of the share price and the number of outstanding shares. Moderna had $14.181 billion in market cap as of Friday.
Also sinking have been shares of BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), which partnered with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to develop the best-selling COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty®. BioNTech shares slid about 6% Thursday from $111.48 to $103.56, then skidded another 4% to $99.72 Friday. The selloff wiped out $3 billion or 11% of market cap for BioNTech, which at the close Friday stood at $23.907 billion.
Pfizer shares dipped 3% Thursday from $26.72 to $26.02, likely because unlike BioNTech, the pharma giant’s revenue base and pipeline go well beyond Comirnaty. Yet by Friday with news of the vaccine stock slides widely reported, Pfizer’s stock slipped nearly 5% to $24.80.
Growth catalysts
Why didn’t BioNTech sink as much as Moderna?
Without addressing RFK Jr., John Newman, PhD, of Canaccord Genuity offered an explanation in a research note: BioNTech has several catalysts for growth in 2025—namely its five cancer vaccine candidates now in clinical trials.
“We see BioNTech’s oncology pipeline as having long-term value-driving potential, given a catalyst-heavy 2025 and all the positive data we have seen thus far for these catalysts,” Newman wrote.
Pfizer and its chairman and CEO Albert Bourla, DVM, PhD, angered Trump in 2020 by not launching Comirnaty before Election Day of that year, with Trump later accusing the company and the FDA of playing politics: “Pfizer and the others would only announce a Vaccine after the Election, because they didn’t have the courage to do it before. Likewise, the FDA should have announced it earlier, not for political purposes, but for saving lives!” Bourla has insisted Pfizer had acted as quickly as their data allowed, by “moving at the speed of science.”
Faring slightly better among the COVID-19 vaccine companies was Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), whose shares retreated 3% Thursday from $7.77 to $7.22, then inched up 1% Friday to $7.32. Unlike the Modera and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines, which are messenger RNA (mRNA-based, Novavax’s shot applies protein-based nanoparticles designed to work with the company’s Matrix-M™ adjuvant, which is intended to help enhance the immune response in the body.
Outside of COVID-19, medical countermeasures developer Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE: EBS), whose products include numerous vaccines, saw some of the biggest declines starting Thursday, when it fell 7% from $9.97 to $9.27, then nosedived 17% to $7.72.
Negative impacts
Michael J. Yee, equity analyst at Jefferies, said the strongest negative impact of RFK’s presence as HHS secretary will fall on “vaccine companies given RFK has publicly held a (-) [negative] stand on childhood and mRNA-based vaccines in general.”
“While it remains unclear how this would play out, we expect the ‘anti-vax’ sentiment to continue,” which Yee said could impact COVID-19 vaccine revenue, which Jefferies projects will be between $2 billion and $3 billion annually.
RFK’s vaccine impact will stretch beyond the COVID-19 jabs, Yee predicted.
“In terms of childhood vaccines, RFK has been vocal on their safety and most importantly on the basis that they cause autism,” Yee added, summing up a position rejected by a scientific consensus in numerous papers including a 2014 meta-analysis. “All of this together could negatively impact vaccine perception in the US and not only lead to lower demand and sales but could potentially cause outbreaks if vaccinations are not consistent over the next four years.”
Investors appeared to agree with Yee, judging from the stock selloff not only of individual vaccine companies, but of the two largest electronic transfer funds (ETF) specializing in biotech shares.
The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE Arca: XBI)—the largest biotechnology ETF with total assets of $7.823 billion as tracked by VettaFi—fell 3% Thursday, from $100.01 to $96.96, then dropped another 5% Friday to $92.24 as of 2:11 p.m. ET.
Similarly, the second-largest biotech ETF, the iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ: IBB) declined 3% Thursday from $143.80 to $140.09, then slid another roughly 5% Friday to $133.74 as of 2:14 p.m. ET.
Psych drug shares surge
By contrast, three public companies focused on developing psychedelic drugs—an area of medicine Kennedy has pledged to encourage at HHS—saw their stocks rise as the week ended.
Atai Life Sciences (NASDAQ: ATAI) shares inched up 1.5% Thursday, from $1.35 to $1.37, before jumping 17.5% Friday to $1.61. Cybin (NYSE American: CYBN) shares rose 5% Thursday from $10.50 to $11, followed by a 5.5% gain Friday to $11.60. On Wednesday, Cybin announced the initiation of its pivotal PARADIGM program to study its lead candidate—CYB003, a deuterated analog of psilocybin—in two Phase III trials: the just-launched APPROACH (NCT06564818), and EMBRACE, set for the first half of 2025; plus a Phase III long-term extension study called EXTEND (NCT06605105).
Compass Pathways (NASDAQ: CMPS) saw its shares rise 6% Friday from $4.89 to $5.17 as of 2:29 p.m. ET, after dipping 2% Thursday from $4.98. Atai is a minority investor in Compass, which in 2020 won the FDA’s first Fast Track and Breakthrough designations for its lead program to develop psilocybin (COMP360), now in a Phase III trial (NCT05624268) in patients with treatment-resistant depression. Compass said on October 31 that it expects data from the trial in the second half of 2026.
Among psilocybin’s most vocal advocates is Calley Means, who with his sister Casey Means have emerged as top advisers to RFK Jr., according to The Wall Street Journal. Calley credits the drug with reviving him personally and spiritually after the collapse of his wedding dress business in 2021.
“I had never considered taking psychedelics. The drugs had a big stigma in my mind. But given the challenging circumstances in my life, I tried the substance in a legal, supervised setting. It was the single most meaningful experience of my life—personally, professionally, and spiritually,” Mears wrote in 2021
Cutting FDA headcount or funding
The second strongest negative impact from RFK Jr., Yee predicted, will fall upon the FDA, an agency that RFK Jr. has rhetorically singled out for an overhaul, “including cutting headcount or funding which could alter the FDA regulatory path for some companies.”
“It’s unclear how much he would be able to do here. He would need Congress for many reforms, and many at the FDA are career employees, not political appointees,” Yee cautioned—though Trump has pledged to revive his “Schedule F” executive order signed in 2020 and repealed in 2021 by President Joe Biden soon after taking office. Schedule F eliminated protections for civil service employees in “positions of a confidential, policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating character.”
“One argument is that he [Kennedy] can place different committees in place to push his ideas around drugs and nutrition in general,” Yee opined.
To do that, RFK Jr. would need approval by a U.S. Senate majority (Republicans will hold a 53–47 edge next year), though Trump has requested the Senate allow him to install RFK Jr. and other Cabinet appointees via recess appointments.
RFK Jr. has asserted in numerous interviews, including an NPR appearance, that: “Of course, we’re not going to take vaccines away from anybody,” adding: “We are going to make sure that Americans have good information about vaccines and vaccine safety.”
“Generational opportunity”
But in a post on X, owned by Trump ally Elon Musk, RFK Jr. declared: “We have a generational opportunity to bring together the greatest minds in science, medicine, industry, and government to put an end to the chronic disease epidemic.”
“I look forward to working with the more than 80,000 employees at HHS to free the agencies from the smothering cloud of corporate capture so they can pursue their mission to make Americans once again the healthiest people on Earth,” RFK Jr. added.
Trump left little doubt that the biopharma industry, as well as food giants, will be scrutinized by his choice to run HHS: “For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to public health,” Trump posted Thursday on his Truth Social account. “Mr. Kennedy will restore these agencies to the traditions of gold standard scientific research, and beacons of transparency, to end the chronic disease epidemic, and to make America great and healthy again!”
The man Trump appointed to oversee Operation Warp Speed, Moncef Slaoui, PhD, told Leerink Partners that the first Trump administration “allowed the success of the operation by fully empowering the team to make decisions in real-time—a degree of freedom he doubts he would have gotten under a different administration,” according to a research note by Leerink analysts Lili Nsongo, PhD, and Mani Foroohar, PhD. “Based on his interactions and experience with President-Elect Trump, he believes the same philosophy will apply to future major health endeavors from the Trump administration.”
Nsongo and Foroohar observed that it was “too soon to tell” whether a second Trump administration would negatively impact the U.S. vaccine market.
Slaoui does not see anti-vaccine thinking spreading widely, the analysts added: “While the resurfacing of anti-vaccine narratives could represent a higher risk under the upcoming administration, Slaoui believes that there may not be much more room to convert more Americans into “anti-vaxxers” as mounting data on the risk associated with the lack of vaccination (especially in children) may bring people who were swayed, but not true anti-vax believers, back into the vaccine fold.”
Leaders and laggards
- Eyenovia (NASDAQ: EYEN) shares plunged 70% from 34 cents to 10 cents Friday after the company said it will end its Phase III CHAPERONE trial (NCT03942419 ) assessing its drug-device combination of low-dose atropine in the company’s Optejet dispensing platform after the combo failed the test by missing its primary endpoint of a less than 0.5 diopter progression in visual acuity over three years. “We plan to terminate the study, review the data more thoroughly, and evaluate next steps,” Eyenovia CEO Michael Rowe stated. The trial’s independent Data Review Committee reviewed safety and efficacy data from 252 evaluable patients, finding that the rate of myopia progression was not significantly different between the two active treatment arms (0.01% and 0.1% atropine ophthalmic metered spray) and placebo.
- Nuvectis Pharma (NASDAQ: NVCT) shares plunged 54% over two days after the company released data from a Phase Ib trial (NCT05226507) of its oral, small molecule GCN2 kinase activator NXP800 that disappointed investors. The trial evaluated NXP800 in patients with platinum-resistant ARID1a-mutated ovarian cancer. In 11 efficacy-evaluable patients, Nuvectis said, one patient showed an unconfirmed partial response while six patients showed stable disease, including tumor shrinkage. The company reported a single patient with Grade 2 thrombocytopenia following a change of dosing to 50 mg/day, 5 days on/2 days off, compared with three patients with Grade 4 thrombocytopenia out of four who either received 75 mg/day or 50 mg/day once daily. Shares plummeted 46% from $10.67 to $5.73 Thursday, then skidded another 14% to $4.95 Friday.
- Pulmatrix (NASDAQ: PULM) shares more than tripled, rocketing 220% over three days after the company joined privately held Cullgen to announce a merger agreement. Pre-merger Cullgen stockholders are expected to own approximately 96.4% of the combined company, which will operate under the name Cullgen. The merged company will be headquartered in San Diego, and trade on NASDAQ. The transaction is expected to close by the end of March 2025, subject to obtaining stockholder and CSRC approval. Shares soared 74% from $2.05 to $3.56 Wednesday, then jumped 32% Thursday to $4.70 and rose another 40% Friday to $6.56.
